11 am IRMA ADVISORY for FRIDAY

BULLETIN

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  38

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017

1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND

CUBAN RADARS…

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND

THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…22.0N 75.3W

ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA

ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet

northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to

Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to

Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east

coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the

west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice

* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita

Beach

* Florida Keys

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and

Villa Clara

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United

States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was

located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 75.3 West. Irma is

moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this

motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a

decrease in forward speed.  A turn toward the northwest is expected

by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should

move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and

Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida

Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely

during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a

powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by both Air Force

and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes was 927 mb (27.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is

expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…6 to 12 ft

Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft

Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 6 ft

Venice to Captiva…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking

waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the

following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the

north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft

Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos

Islands, with tropical storm and hurricane conditions ongoing in the

southeastern Bahamas.  These conditions will move into the central

Bahamas later today.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the

hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late today and

Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern

Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida

and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida

by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic and Haiti…additional 1 to 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos…additional 2 to 4 inches.

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20

inches.

Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.

The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida…10 to 15 inches,

isolated 20 inches.

Lower Florida Keys…4 to 8 inches.

Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia…8 to 12 inches,

isolated 16 inches.

Western Florida peninsula…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Much of Georgia…South Carolina…and Western North Carolina…3 to

6 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

and, in some areas, mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the

Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos

Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should

start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States

later today and tonight.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Avila