BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
…WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Isle of Youth.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North,
longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17
mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta
is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon,
be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday,
and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves
over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by
late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane
conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the
next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba,
tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions
of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding
and mudslides.
Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.
Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next
week.
SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
