Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020
…TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI…405 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuba province of La Habana
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move
near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical
cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher .
gust .Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the
Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall will be possible with this system.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.
