BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020
…DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE…
…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.5N 81.3W
ABOUT 420 MI…675 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning
westward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Dzilam.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Dzilam to Progresso
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuba province of La Habana
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and
move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early
Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
isforecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a
major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the
Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and
Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight
in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same
time.
RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.
Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.
Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
southeastern United States.
SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
