BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
…EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA…
…MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the South Santee River.
The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch
west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach
to South Santee River.
The government of Cuba has discontinued the watches and warnings for
Holguin and Las Tunas provinces.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is
expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to
move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and
will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves
away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…
4 to 6 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach…2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Northwestern Bahamas…3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward
across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
Northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina…4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina…4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on
Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
