BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020
…REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE…
…EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuba province of La Habana
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest
motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue
to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this
afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when
Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast
when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane
conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in
the watch area near the same time.
RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.
Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.
Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash
and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States.
SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
